Sunday, June 13, 2010

Randomness: what is it?

We have heard a lot of random behaviour of the markets. "Prices move randomly". "We need to benefit from the randomness". "Fooled by Randomness".People talk about randomness as something unpredictable. But what exactly is randomness? How do we understand its repercussions? I thought I should dwell on it and write my perspective.

Randomness means unpredictable behaviour devoid of any pattern.Since emotions drive the markets,buying or selling pressure changes prices randomly. But that is only partially true. While prices may very randomly they tend to settle down towards the intrinsic value of the business nee stock. They move from support to resistance and vice-versa. Thus this is not randomness. Anyone who has a fair idea of intrinsic valuation of any business can certainly benefit from this. What is random is the time-frame over which these moves occur. Specially in the short term. How will markets open tomorrow? What would be the stock price tomorrow? This is absolutely random. If that be so then why worry about randomness? Why not just buy stocks at your valuation and sell when they are overpriced? This sounds simple enough. The only difficulty is one needs to hold onto the stock till it reaches our desired selling price. So anyone with own funds and having the holding capacity need not worry about randomness. He/She ought to buy good stocks when they are cheap and let market euphoria take them up and up and up. Worry about randomness is for short term trader and speculator. Randomness (of price variation) is a friendly event for an investor.

rgds
Vibhas

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Investments in stock markets is risky. Information and advice is based on technical analysis and is provided without any liability (financial or otherwise).

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