Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Next two months

Some thoughts on how I feel things will pan out in India. In politics, election results of three Loksabha and some assembly seats are being declared today. The party in governance is likely to look forward to these results very keenly. Subsequently elections in Maharashtra and Haryana are likely to weigh heavily on their mind to assess their future plans of governance.PM's Japan and China interactions are likely to lead to major investments in the short term. PM's forthcoming US visit is also likely to encourage investment in India. These events are likely to strengthen INR Vs USD but RBI is not going to allow further appreciation of INR. In corporate developments, HDFC and HDFC Bank merger talk is gaining currency. Both scrips are likely to be in demand. Talk of SUUTI stake sale is in the air. hence ITC and L&T may see depressed prices because supply is imminent. IDFC is likely to witness some real price appreciation once they take steps towards their banking foray. Infrastructure projects are being approved by govt in a big way. Infra companies are likely to get good deals and announcements are likely to follow soon. Even though the profits accrue much later, market is likely to reward companies much earlier (close to announcements.) Drop in crude prices is going to benefit Tyre and Paint companies. So also reduce India's current account deficit. Petrol and diesel prices should drop. Inflation, hence also will be lower. So in short Indian economy is likely to see much better days sooner than later.

Monday, September 15, 2014

Back to writing again

It has been a long time since I wrote a post here. Good to be back. I was just reading my old posts. My observations from 2011 and 2012 have stood the test of time. India has voted a new government to power and decision making has improved. We also hope to see new impetus to growth, a focus on development and signs of economic recovery. So it is good to be back to writing my observations here.
I have put up my favorite Larsen and Toubro chart. The price rise is a sharp reflection of optimism of the market participants. See how it has moved up from Rs 1200 to Rs 1750 in a matter of four months. Presently Rs 1750 seems to be the top range for Larsen. New buyers are willing to enter at Rs 1450.
Even though I did not write a post here for so many days I have been tracking the market daily. I hope to be writing this blog regularly now. So do visit this page more often. You could see some new ideas. rgds

Saturday, June 30, 2012

Human Traits 'वृत्ती'


'सात्विक', 'राजस', 'तामस '  are three types of  'वृत्ती'   ( 'vrutti' / trait) in every human being.  'Satvik' individual is Conscientious, Ethical, Righteous. 'Rajas' trait results in aggressive, dominating and materialistic behaviour. 'Tamas' trait leads to  lazy, free loader behaviour. These traits vary in different proportions in different individuals. All three are essential. Every behaviour is an outcome of dominance of one or the other trait. One can not eliminate any trait. The fight between these three traits will happen till eternity. This fight happens daily, inside our own mind, in families, in societies and  between nations. It happened in Ramayan, Mahabharat, World War I and II. However Nature has empowered us to ensure a balance between the three traits.  

So what should we do when we see dominance of 'Rajas' or 'Tamas' trait around us?
We must stand up to it. We must reduce its influence on situations. We must continue the fight with the evil force. Each one of us has a 'Sphere of influence' around us based on our position and power in organisation/society. It could be large or small.The size does not matter. This 'Sphere of influence' must be put to good use. This will restore balance. It takes time but it works. It has worked for so many centuries. 

'Good people must assert themselves'. That is the key.

rgds
Vibhas 

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

India Story

It is difficult to be an optimist in India today. Lack of policy action from the central govt has paralysed the Indian economy. Money is flowing out of the country making Indian rupee a weaker currency. Stock valuations are low, investor confidence is close to zero, there is only bad news all over. So what does a retail investor do in such a scenario? I have thought over this and have some points to make.

1. Long term investments can certainly be made in quality stocks at these valuations. Please do not  look at stock prices on a day to day basis because it really means nothing.
2. Diversify your investments in equities, gold, real estate, mutual funds. Presently though gold and real estate are already at a high level, only equities are cheap.
3. Please refrain from future and options segment because it is a double edged sword. In a volatile market it cuts really hard both ways.
4. Please create awareness in your friends and acquaintances that we need to reform our electoral system drastically. We need to bring in proportionate representation. A voter may be allowed to vote for a party and the party votes then pooled together to decide how many elected representatives are sent to govern us. During the recent celebrations of sixty years of Indian parliament, Sitaram Yechury wrote extensively about it.
5. We need to change political funding. We need to bring in inner party democracy in all political parties. Today only about fifty people decide policy issues in this country. They have their vested interest of staying in power in perpetuity. That is not in the best of the nations's interest.

I am an eternal optimist though. Things are going to change. Reforms will happen. Indian equities offer the best upside from here on.

rgds
Vibhas

Monday, January 09, 2012

Our Investments for Good Quality Life: My personal experience


Having reached the middle age, one tends to introspect on how life was spent so far and how it can be utilised in a even more effective manner. I have hence conducted a small audit and have identified four critical things to enjoy a happy and fruitful life. Your comments are welcome.

1. Health. One must enjoy a healthy, long, disease free and blissful life. This is the bottom line. All efforts are towards achieving this. Healthy, long and disease free life can be earned by slowing down pace of life thereby reducing stress and hence ageing process. Regular exercise is essential for this aspect. Open air exercises, fresh air and sunlight, adequate sweating and deep breathing are a must.These habits are to be formed. Once formed they bring in small but effective changes in our body systems naturally. Adequate deep sleep is essential for good health. Specially half an hour siesta post lunch. It is heavenly. 

2. Relationships. Investing in deep and bonding relationships is essential for a blissful and complete life. Spouse, children,parents,uncles and aunts,cousins, nephews,nieces, coursemates, friends,acquaintances......
The list is long. What is essential to note is that each relationship has an unwritten Emotional Bank Account (EBA). We can not withdraw more than what we deposit. We need to invest in EBA of each relationship on a regular basis and withdraw hardly ever from it. 

3. Bank Balance.  One must have adequate bank balance to enjoy good quality life. How much is enough is dependent on one's 'wants', not 'needs'. Needs are really not very much. It is the 'wants' that create the desire to amass wealth. As long wealth is created ethically, it gives you peaceful sleep. Unethical wealth creation goes against our very aim of 'blissful life'. Always remember, 'money is a good servant but a poor master'. 

4. Time. All the above mentioned factors are governed by one important element. Time. We live life in the present moment. This moment can not be stored, recreated,carried forward. We must be masters of our own time. Let no one else command our time more than what we allow. Life is to be enjoyed this very moment, every moment. While we do not have control over flow of time, we must have control over the quality of our time. This is possible and must be exercised.

Thus good health, warm relationships, strong bank balance and free quality time are most critical elements to enjoy good quality life. 

Wish you all a very long,healthy,wealthy and blissful life.

rgds

Vibhas

Suggested reading: 
Eastern   :- Bhagvad Gita, Katha Upnishad, Vedanta Treatise, 
Western :- Tao of Physics, Cosmos, The Power of Now.

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Investments in stock markets is risky. Information and advice is based on technical analysis and is provided without any liability (financial or otherwise).

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